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EPL Match 12 Player-to-Score Deep Analysis & Odds Comparison – 96.com vs Bet365

96.com vs Bet365

Matchday 12 of the English Premier League begins on Saturday, 22nd November, with all 20 teams returning to action after the international break.

At 96.com, we analyse football using real performance data, tactical context, and measurable scoring indicators. Below is our comprehensive Player-to-Score breakdown for the upcoming Premier League fixtures, comparing 96.com’s stronger pricing versus Bet365, backed by actual player numbers from this ongoing season.

Odds comparison

FixturePlayer96.com OddsBet365 Odds
Burnley vs ChelseaNeto32.2
Bournemouth vs West HamDavid Brooks42.87
Brighton vs BrentfordKaoru Mitoma4.23
Fulham vs SunderlandEmile Smith Rowe54
Liverpool vs Nottingham ForestVirgil van Dijk9.87
Wolves vs Crystal PalaceDaichi Kamada84.5
Newcastle vs Man CityPhil Foden4.63.6
Leeds vs Aston VillaMorgan Rogers4.83.75
Arsenal vs SpursWilliam Saliba158.5
Man United vs EvertonBruno Fernandes (Penalty taker)4.12.87

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Burnley vs Chelsea

Player Focus: Neto: 96.com 3.0 | Bet365 2.20

Pedro Neto of Chelsea has played 837 minutes so far this Premier League season. During that time, he has attempted 15 shots, scored 3 goals, and accumulated an expected goals value (xG) of 2.06, reflecting a strong efficiency level in the final third.

Bournemouth vs West Ham

Player Focus: David Brooks: 96.com 4.0 | Bet365 2.87

David Brooks of Bournemouth has featured for 555 minutes in the league campaign, providing steady involvement in attacking phases and continuing to grow in influence within Bournemouth’s system.

Brighton vs Brentford

Player Focus: Kaoru Mitoma: 96.com 4.2 | Bet365 3.0

For Brighton & Hove Albion, Kaoru Mitoma has played 510 minutes in the ongoing season, remaining an important contributor in wide areas with progressive carries and direct forward play.

Fulham vs Sunderland

Player Focus: Emile Smith Rowe: 96.com 5.0 | Bet365 4.0

Emile Smith Rowe of Fulham has registered 216 minutes of action and has scored 1 goal, taking 5 shots, producing an xG total of 1.01, and hitting 2 shots on target. His statistics highlight promising productivity in limited playing time.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

Player Focus: Virgil van Dijk: 96.com 9.8 | Bet365 7.0

At Liverpool, captain Virgil van Dijk has appeared in 11 Premier League fixtures, accumulating 990 minutes on the pitch. His consistency and durability continue to anchor Liverpool’s defensive structure.

Wolves vs Crystal Palace

Player Focus: Daichi Kamada: 96.com 8.0 | Bet365 4.5

For Crystal Palace, Daichi Kamada has recorded 762 minutes this season, taking 9 shots and producing an xG value of 0.64, with 2 of those attempts landing on target, despite not yet scoring.

Newcastle vs Manchester City

Player Focus: Phil Foden: 96.com 4.6 | Bet365 3.6

Phil Foden of Manchester City has totalled 712 minutes of league football, playing a crucial creative role in City’s attacking rotation and positional fluidity.

Leeds vs Aston Villa

Player Focus: Morgan Rogers: 96.com 4.8 | Bet365 3.75

At Aston Villa, Morgan Rogers has played 978 minutes in the current campaign and remains a consistent attacking option, frequently appearing in build-up and finishing phases.

Arsenal vs Tottenham

Player Focus: William Saliba: 96.com 15.0 | Bet365 8.5

For Arsenal, defender William Saliba has played 725 minutes, taken 2 shots, and produced 0.26 xG, while still searching for his first goal of the season. However, his aerial involvement remains important during set pieces.

Also Read: Burnley vs Chelsea Match Preview, Betting Odds & Prediction | 22 Nov 2025

Manchester United vs Everton

Player Focus: Bruno Fernandes: Penalty Taker: 96.com 4.1 | Bet365 2.87

Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United has accumulated 982 minutes, taken 25 shots, scored 2 goals, and generated an xG total of 4.70, reflecting his continued role as United’s primary attacking outlet and shooting creator.

Why Choose 96.com Over Bet365 for Matchday 12

1. Higher Payouts for the Same Event

Across all 10 Player-to-Score selections, 96.com provides significantly higher odds than Bet365, meaning a ₹100 stake produces larger returns every time. For example, Saliba returns ₹1,400 profit on 96.com vs ₹750 on Bet365 – a ₹650 advantage for the same bet.

2. More Accurate Value When Compared With Actual Player Performance Data

Our decision framework utilises verified statistics, including minutes played, shot volume, goals, and xG, to measure real scoring probability. For instance, Bruno Fernandes’ 982 minutes and 25 shots support a higher true probability than Bet365’s implied line, making 96.com’s 4.1 price a measurable value edge.

3. Implied Probability Gap Creates Betting Opportunity

By converting odds into implied scoring probability, 96.com consistently values these players as less likely to score than Bet365 does. That lower implied probability paired with real data increases positive expected value. 

Example: Bruno = 24.39% implied probability at 96.com vs 34.84% on Bet365.

4. Tactical & Role-Based Edge

Matchday 12 selections consider role-specific scoring context (e.g., Bruno on penalties, Van Dijk & Saliba as set-piece aerial targets). These tactical advantages are reflected when assessing real probability but are not priced into Bet365’s market, which reduces payout potential.

5. Evidence-Based Model Produces Positive Expected Value

When applying our Matchday-12 evaluation rules (Minutes ≥60%, xG/shot threshold, clear scoring role), players like Bruno and Foden produce positive Expected Value on 96.com and negative Expected Value on Bet365. 

For Bruno, expected value is +23% at 96.com and −13.9% at Bet365, a clear mathematical reason to prefer 96.com.

Conclusion

Based purely on numbers and real performance data, 96 APK provides objectively higher expected returns than Bet365 for Matchday 12 Player-to-Score bets, without relying on assumptions or opinion, only measurable probability and payout difference.

FAQs


1. What is a Player-to-Score betting market?

It is a market where bettors predict a specific player to score a goal in the match. If the player scores at any time during regulation time, the bet wins.

2. Why compare 96.com odds with Bet365 for Matchday 12?

Because the same outcome delivers different payouts on different platforms. For Matchday 12, 96.com odds are consistently higher across all 10 analysed players, creating larger return potential per unit stake.

3. What stats are used to evaluate scoring probability?

Minutes played, shots taken, xG (expected goals), goals scored, set-piece involvement, and penalty responsibility.

4. Why do higher odds matter if the event probability is the same?

Higher odds reduce implied probability and increase expected value. For example, Bruno Fernandes at 4.1 on 96.com has a positive EV model, while Bet365’s 2.87 price results in negative EV for the same scoring probability.

5. How much difference can better odds make in real returns?

For the same ₹100 stake, the difference can range from ₹80 extra (Pedro Neto) to as high as ₹650 extra (William Saliba). This makes value selection essential rather than optional.

author avatar
Warren Pits
Warren holds a degree in Statistics and Sports Management from the University of Liverpool and has more than seven years of experience in football betting analysis. He specialises in breaking down odds, comparing betting markets, and helping readers understand betting mechanics in a clear, practical way. At Register96.com, Warren focuses on responsible betting education, using data-driven research and honest insights to help fans make smarter, more informed decisions.

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